A Model Based on Factors Influencing Financial Market Indices in Iran's Environmental Conditions
Keywords:
Elections, Macroeconomic Indices, Financial Market Indices, Political UncertaintyAbstract
Objective: The present study aims to provide a model based on the factors influencing financial market indices under Iran's environmental conditions. Methodology: This research, due to its practical recommendations, is an applied study and presents a novel exploratory model. Data collection for this study was conducted using semi-structured interviews. The research sample consisted of 15 experts from the Tehran Stock Exchange, each with over 10 years of experience working as economic and market analysts. In this study, an Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) approach was used to design a model. Findings: Through ISM analysis using the exploratory model, 18 factors were identified. These include macroeconomic indices such as economic growth, inflation rate, unemployment rate, and exchange rate, alongside electoral indices such as presidential election results, parliamentary election results, changes in economic policies, social policy changes, cultural policy changes, instability, and unpredictability. Additionally, political uncertainty indices, including a decline in trading volume, regional conflicts in the Middle East, domestic reactions and dissatisfaction, reduced investor confidence, and price fluctuations, can impact financial market indices, including secondary indices, risk indices, and price indices. Conclusion: The findings of this study indicate that Iran's financial market indices are influenced by various economic, political, and social factors, and accurately identifying these factors can contribute to the development of more effective predictive models.
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